For the friends of the yellow metal, the last few weeks and months were quite stretching and testing for their nerves and good confidence.
Gold is gaining momentum again – it will return 1800 $ / oz?
For the friends of the yellow metal, the last few weeks and months were quite stretching and testing for their nerves and good confidence. First, a lull in the gold price so that it looks as if the whole world had “forgotten” gold (if you ignore the fact of the fact, Medial once again dead. Then came the ominous sale of paper money on the afternoon of April 17, where a chain of events the gold price even fell briefly below 30,000 euros per kg.
The strong fall in April triggered by paper gold sales to the extent of 12% of the total trading volume had caused many funds and large investors to separate themselves from the yellow metal.
At the same time, many goldfans took advantage of the best conditions to increase their stocks in 2 years and bought the bearings empty, so many precious metal traders had to report delivery delays. This is a condition of the precious metal friends.
In order to understand the meaning of the gold rush and the dizzy heights,
The physical gold market – a brief overview:
A circumstance which one may have used to. Why do you ask yourself? To do this, one has to take a closer look at the physical gold market:
About 4500-5000 tonnes of gold are traded annually in physical form. These are roughly 50% from goldmining and the other 50% come from recycled gold.
The demand is also shared in the same proportion – 45% migrate into the safes as investment gold, 5% go to electronics and 50% to the jewelery industry.
Most of the jewelry is shipped to Asia, China and India, where the governments are interested in buying gold. In India, for example, the jewelers are forbidden to sell gold to private customers.
The current figures show that the sales of jewelery has been diminished, the demand for investment products from private as well as from banks is unbroken.
BILD: This is how the gold is distributed – investment and jewelry each account for about 40%. The central banks have been among the largest buyers for three years.
Gold supply precedence?
However, the problem begins here: The first large mines have stopped production because the costs of production are above the current gold price. If one assumes that the currently no longer lucrative gold mines account for 30% of all mines, this means that a shortfall for the annual requirement of approx. 15%. Gold recycling plants around the world report a further decline of almost 30% worldwide. This defect and that from the mines results in an error quantity of 30% or 1500 tonnes or a cube of about 6m edge length.
The US economist Peter Schiff also comes to the conclusion on Yahoo Finance that the physical gold disappears and that all the paper gold traders at the end of the day must be able to deliver the raw material they sell out. And that is exactly what they will not do, since it will not be there.
Gold soon again at 1300.- EUR per ounce?
Taking this shortfall as a ratio for price increases, gold could soon rise to 43,000 euros / kg due to the supply gap and demand. This is roughly just below the peak value of 2012, which is not a price target that seems realistic. We are assuming that this high-altitude flight will start much earlier, contrary to most other expert opinions of recent months; Possibly already towards the end of this year.
The last April has shown it impressively – also the millennium currency gold is not protected against attacks by speculators. The reason for this is that the gold price is formed not only by physical demand and trade, but also by a far greater share of short selling and speculation. Gold is now viewed as a currency and no longer as an investment in the prevailing currency war, and is also fought as well, since its appreciation has always been an expression of the loss of purchasing power of a currency.
For this reason, we believe it is possible that this manipulation could lead to the development of two prices for gold in a supply shortage. First, the one with which the speculators in the markets “gamble” and the other, to which the gold bullion or the bullion coins are calculated, which you want to buy in the business or the bank.
If not everyone wants gold to get gold because it is not available – must pay the price that the one who still has it. At the latest, old economic rules are reapplied: demand determines the price.
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